LIGO Scientific Collaboration site post and my comment about LIGO design defect
the post on November 9:
Our initial @LIGO @ego_virgo analysis classifies #S191109d as most likely another binary #BlackHoles merger...and the false alarm rate (if it's a real astrophysical event) is estimated at about once every 200,000 years. #O3Bishere
my comment on November 15:
Yes - if it's a real astrophysical event. It's not.
LIGO's Design Defect
LIGO has a basic defect in its design.
Knowing that defect, on November 10 in a comment to the November 9 post, I predicted LIGO would detect gravitational waves between November 10 and 14.
On November 10, 2 hours after my prediction a GW detection was reported. 5 hours later another GW detection was reported.
I had successfully predicted these 2 detections and I believe no gravitational waves occurred.
I made the prediction based on the LIGO design defect.
It is impossible to make precise predictions due to this design defect but 2 detections were reported in the predicted 5-day span.
Before my prediction LIGO also had detections on November 5 and 9.
This comment will explain the LIGO defect and the source for all four detections.
None of these detections (with a known source on Earth of a wave in the crust) were from a gravitational wave, as far as I know.
The basic defect in LIGO's design is the simple wrong assumption any wave being detected in Earth's crust can be from only a gravitational wave.
It is important to know LIGO has never been validated with an actual inspiral merger event.
With no validation there could be a multitude of other defects beyond the one identified here.
When a wave caused by a terrestrial source is processed by LIGO the only possible conclusion from the analysis is an inspiral event.
My prediction was based on LIGO making the mistake of assigning a gravitational wave source to what was really a source on Earth.
My prediction had a simple basis. November 12 has a known full moon event. I expected LIGO to react to that moon event and report detections and LIGO did.
Here is how everything interacts for LIGO detections.
I expect most know about ocean tides where the force of gravity from the Moon lifts the oceans slightly in the Moon's direction. While this occurs the Earth continues its daily rotation.
Essentially there is a wave in the ocean's surface as the Earth rotates.
The force of gravity from the Moon also affects the crust; this is called an earth tide.
As the Earth rotates there is a small wave in Earth's crust. The crust is stiff, not liquid like the oceans.
This wave of an Earth tide gets stronger under five scenarios:
a) New Moon - both the Moon and Sun are in line on the same side of Earth (a solar eclipse can occur) so they combine to get a stronger wave.
b) Full Moon - both the Moon and Sun are in line with Earth but in opposing directions so they combine to get a stronger resulting wave on Earth's sphere.
c) Perigee - the Moon (which orbits in an ellipse not a circle) is at its closest distance to Earth so its earth tide is stronger.
d) Perihelion - the Earth (which orbits in an ellipse not a circle) is at its closest distance to the Sun so its earth tide is stronger.
e) Moon - Jupiter alignment. On April 23, 2019 the Moon and Jupiter were nearly in an exact alignment and the earth tide from the Moon became stronger.This event happened only once during LIGO's long run but I include it because LIGO detected it.
Since my prediction on November 10 was successful I will use that event as part of this description.
The optimum alignment for the peak of an Earth tide wave takes a few days because the Moon and Sun are moving at different rates across the sky.
While this alignment transitions from being not aligned to best aligned to not aligned the Earth continues its rotation.
November 12, 2019 was the date of the optimum full moon alignment with Earth, Moon and Sun.
Over half of the LIGO detections occur within 2 days of the peak earth tide events, which means in the range of up to 2 days before and up to 2 days after.
My prediction was based on that history, where November 10 and 14 are the ends of that -2 to +2 range.
LIGO reported two detections on the 10th or 2 days before the full moon, as anticipated by the prediction.
However LIGO began its detections earlier with reports on November 5 and 9.
The November 2019 events offer insight into this LIGO design and its defects.
GraceDB lists all detections since April 2019(for O3 run).
Wikipedia has a list of detections since 2015 (since O1 run). This list includes assigned probabilities to the inspiral pair.
The two lists cover different years and have different criteria.
The GraceDB list has the analysis tags.
There are several tags but the two relevant here are SKYMAP_READY and PE_READY.
I assume the first (Skymap is available) is after analysis determined the event's location in the sky.
I assume the second (Parameter estimation results are available) is after analysis determined the event's parameters including probabilities.
LIGO returned to service on November 1 after being off for October maintenance.
Since November 1, Grace DB recorded these detections resulting from the Full Moon on November 12:
S191105e _ 7 days before FM
S191109d _ 3 days before FM
S1911110x _ 2 days before FM
S1911110af _ 2 days before FM
Wikipedia has only 2 of them:
S191105e _ 95% BH-BH
S191109d _ 99.99978% BH-BH
S191105e _ SKYMAP_READY, PE_READY
S191109d _ SKYMAP_READY, PE_READY
S1911110x _ SKYMAP_READY, PE_READY
S1911110af _ SKYMAP_READY
When considering these results of analyzing the changing earth tide over several days it is readily apparent LIGO detections cannot be predicted to specific dates.
I offer no explanation for the above LIGO results on different days.
Most Wikipedia events have PE_ READY status but not all.
In the case of this particular full moon 4 detections were reported with 2 of them assigned to binary black hole mergers.
The earth tide was in its progression for detections on November 5, 9, and 10. The lack of inherent reliability in LIGO is apparent with 2 detections on one day, the 10th.
One could consider the double detections from one earth tide wave another defect in the LIGO algorithm.
The earth tide continued its progression after November 10 to its peak on November 12 and on subsequent days its effect would weaken. No detections were reported beyond those dates above.
With a) the lack of consistency given LIGO's design defect and
b) the inherent uncertain probability of finding the template in the signal and
c) using a system lacking verification for its claimed detections:
I was lucky to have my prediction confirmed by 2 detections.
LIGO does not detect gravitational waves - until it has been verified to do so.
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