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LIGO's Predicament

My successful prediction on November 10 of detecting gravitational waves based on the full moon on November 12 has put LIGO in an interesting predicament.
This is a long description of this predicament.

Simply:
LIGO must prove their next gravitational wave detection claim.

I am sure they doubt that expectation but here is my justification.

My prediction on November 10 involved 3 different lunar events.
Right after the initial prediction was confirmed I informed LIGO on their facebook page the prediction was based on the full moon on November 12 so I had an identified source for my prediction which was confirmed later that day.

This is the entire prediction:

===
Predictions:
There will be LIGO detections between November 10 and 14, between November 21 and 25, between November 24 and 28.
There will be several other detections before and after these narrow ranges.
==

Of course this is a vaguely worded prediction but it had to be that way due to the inconsistency inherent in LIGO.
Fortunately, the prediction was successful with 2 wave detections within the 7 hours after the prediction.

The 3 ranges in the prediction are based on these lunar events:
November 12 full moon
November 23 perigee
November 26 new moon

The dates and the mention of surrounding dates in the prediction are rooted in LIGO's history.
 I will call the trigger a Moon-Sun-Event or MSE.
The 5 MSE events are full moon, new moon, perigee, perihelion, moon-jupiter conjunction.

Since the O3 run began in April 2019, 26 of the 45 detections were within +/- 2 days of an MSE. This history justified the 5-day ranges in the prediction though 58% is far from certain but there were only 14 MSE in the span.
The LIGO detection on November 5, 2019 was only the second at 7 days from the MSE; the rest (43 of 45) were within 6 days of an MSE.
All LIGO detections have been within 7 days of an MSE.

Though this range seems too broad, the range reflects the consistency of LIGO.

Therefore at the time of the prediction, LIGO reports detections within the range of +/- 7 days from the MSE.
This LIGO history justified the vague 'before and after' reference in the prediction.
The confirmation on November 10 of my prediction made the MSE basis legitimate.
This legitimate basis allows the use of LIGO's history to establish the range for each MSE-based prediction.
The November range of 10 to 14 based on Nov 12 FM covers the justified range of Nov 5 to 19.
The range  based on Nov 23 perigee covers the justified range of Nov 16 to 30.
The range  based on Nov 26 NM covers the justified range of Nov 19 to Dec 3.


The data above are based on all detections reported in GraceDB since April 2019.
Anyone can see the ranges cover into early December.
I can make a prediction with similar 5-day ranges for upcoming MSE dates from December 2019 through 2020 and beyond. That might not be necessary if GW detections are disputed in late November.

LIGO was not forced to respond to the prediction of the 2 detections on November 10.

This is because the LIGO project is more complicated than just wave detections.

LIGO has 2 lists of its detections:
1) GraceDB lists all detections since April 2019, and each entry includes the status of its analysis.
2) LIGO maintains a separate list  in Wikipedia with those detections having an identified binary.

This Wikipedia list began with LIGO in 2015.

The two lists are different where the Wikipedia list has the identified source of the detected gravitational wave where the source is the binary pair which merged creating the gravitational wave claimed to be detected.

The debate with gravitational waves is whether they are real so a claimed gravitational wave must have its claimed source confirmed.

With my confirmed prediction a terrestrial source was shown to be declared as a wave detection.

The next step is forcing LIGO to verify their claimed binary merger was a real event.


On November 9, 2019 at 01:07:17 (UTC) LIGO claims it detected the gravitational wave named S191109d and assigned its source to a BH-BH merger with a probability of 99.99978 %.

The November 9  detection is within the historically justified range for my prediction.
Technically LIGO should justify their claim of a gravitational wave (from a merger) which conflicts with my claim of an earth tide wave on that date.

However this event was actually before the prediction so LIGO can ignore my prediction.
My successful prediction implies this claimed BH-BH is wrong.

For now I updated my comments in the LIGO facebook page.

The LIGO Scientific Collaboration face book page post about the November 9 GW detection
has these two comments:

<< 1 - entered November 10.
Predictions:
There will be LIGO detections between November 10 and 14, between November 21 and 25, between November 24 and 28.
There will be several other detections before and after these narrow ranges. I was late with this prediction but detections were already reported on November 5 and 9.
Since LIGO began reporting detections it reports them in clumps with more in each clump in the O3 run (less in O1/O2).
For example in 2017 August 14, 17, 18 had detections.

>>1

<< 2 - entered November 14
My prediction for LIGO detections entered on the morning of November 10 was confirmed by a LIGO detection at 2 hours after my prediction and another detection 7 hours after my prediction.
>>2

<< 3 entered November 14 but edited today

I predicted the detections on November 10 would result from the full moon on November 12.
LIGO should provide evidence for the claimed merger on Nov 9. I have evidence for my wave claim. Because of the timing here the next GW event can have its source debated.
>> 3

We will see how the LIGO team responds after they declare the next GW detection and have assigned the binary pair.

This is the LIGO predicament:

 They must confirm their next claim of a gravitational wave detection!

This predicament involves the claimed source of the detected wave.

I expect nothing more can be done until after a new detection is assigned the merger probabilities for an actual gravitational wave detection.

With that specific GW detection the source of the claimed GW can be debated.

It is impossible to predict when a detected wave will be analyzed with the result as a binary merger.

The detections on November 5, 9, 10 were from the same full moon on the 12th but only those on 5 and 9 were assigned a merger while those on the 10th, only 2 days from the full moon, were not promoted.
This analysis seems arbitrary.
34 in the list of 45 were assigned a merger to graduate to the other list.

After LIGO announces its next detection of a gravitational wave from an identified binary, that claim can be disputed with justification.

I am sure LIGO will doubt my justification for an MSE to dispute every GW claim..

Several detections are predicted in the coming weeks but whether they are claimed to be GW events cannot be predicted, given LIGO's inconsistency.

We will soon discover whether LIGO declares its detected gravitational waves with an assigned binary...

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