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Midwestern USA Temperature Modifications

The other web pages in this set (for the Religion of CAGW) involve a presentation of the temperatures in the ‘raw’ data set at GISS. There are three data sets at GISS: for raw data (with some corrections), combined data (after combining multiple records for the same location) and homogenized data (after a ‘cleaning’ adjustment). This web page shows the calculated difference between the raw values and the homogenized values, presented as the annual average (averaging the difference for all the months in each year having a temperature record). These charts use Jan-Dec for the months in each year. Since GISS performs seasonal averaging, with the seasons beginning in December not January, the charts sometimes show a slight change in the last year before a step change; this slight difference is due to the GISS adjustment for the next step starting in December.

There are three possible trends to observe:

If the line of the temperature differences is flat on zero then that means there were no adjustments by GISS between the raw temperatures and the homogenized temperatures.

If the trend of the line is from the upper left (positive) toward zero at the right then that means there must have been warming due to the location of the temperature measurement instrument(s), presumably due to the urban heat island effect (human activities around the instruments warmed the device(s) more than had the device(s) been located away from those activities) and so the oldest temperatures are warmed to compensate for that effect. This adjustment is clear recognition that the temperature record is corrupted (warmed) by the temperature recording methods.

If the trend of the line is from the lower left (negative) toward zero
p(or positive)m at the right then the oldest temperatures were made cooler making any temperature trend in the homogenized data set at this location warmer than the raw temperatures indicated. This adjustment either increases any warming present or results in a warming trend where none was present.

Here are the differences between the annual average temperatures in the raw and homogenized GISS data ).
The following graphs are for the states in the Midwest Region, by their names in alphabetical order like this:

IL,IN,IA,KS,MI,MN,MO,NE,ND,OH,SD,WI


After each graph is a short summary of the analysis for its locations. The left column of numbers has the temperature adjustments and the right column of numbers are the 10-year averages (of anomalies)  for the year at the left. The First Adj is the first adjustment in the record. The First Ave is the first 10-year average in the record. A Peak Ave is a peak (high or low) in the anomaly average while Mid Adj is a middle peak (high or low) in the annual temperature adjustment (a Mid Adj is somewhat uncommon since the typical adjustment starts either high or low and approaches zero at the end). When the adjustments are positive, the oldest raw temperatures have been increased which would be a compensation for when the most recent temperatures are too warm due to the urban heat island effect. When the adjustments are negative, the oldest raw temperatures have been decreased which would make any overall warming trend more severe or could make an overall flat or cooling trend into a warming trend. Take note of the sign of the adjustments and the temperature swings in the first half of the 20th Century.

IL9difS

Illinois
IL Aurora
1895  First Adj   0.0 
1904  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.2
1909  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1918  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
1939  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1958  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6

IL Hillsboro
1897  First Adj  -0.4 
1905  First Ave  -0.3  10-yr Ave  -0.7
1939  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1985  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.5

IL Peoria
1881  First Adj  -0.2 
1890  First Ave  -0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1895  Peak Ave   -0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.6
1939  Peak Ave   +0.2  10-yr Ave  +1.0
1948  Mid Adj    -0.2  10-yr Ave  +0.3
1969  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.7
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7


IN9difS

Indiana
IN Seymour
1895  First Adj  -0.4 
1904  First Ave  +0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1939  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1969  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.7
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.5

IN Whitestown
1895  First Adj  +0.6 
1904  First Ave  +0.5  10-yr Ave  +0.2
1912  Peak Ave   +0.4  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1939  Peak Ave   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.4
1969  Peak Ave   _0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.3


IA9difS

Iowa
IA Fayette
1895  First Adj  -0.3 
1904  First Ave  -0.3  10-yr Ave  -0.5
1939  Peak Ave   -0.4  10-yr Ave  +0.7
1985  Peak Ave   -0.5  10-yr Ave  -0.5
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7

IA Iowa Falls
1895  First Adj  -0.2 
1904  First Ave  -0.3  10-yr Ave  -0.4
1939  Peak Ave   -0.4  10-yr Ave  +0.5
1951  Peak Ave   -0.3  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6


KS9difS

Kansas
KS Manhattan
1895  First Adj  +0.2 
1904  First Ave  +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.2
1920  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.5
1939  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  +0.7
1952  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.4

KS Sedan
1895  First Adj   0.0 
1905  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1939  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.8
1976  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.2

KS Wa Keeney
1895  First Adj  -0.5 
1904  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.5
1939  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7
1952  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.5


MI9difS

Michigan
MI Coldwater
1897  First Adj   0.0 
1906  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.4
1939  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.5
1967  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.5

MI Iron Mountain
1899  First Adj  -0.1 
1908  First Ave  +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.8
1949  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  +0.3
1980  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.2
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7

MI Owosso
1896  First Adj  -0.3 
1905  First Ave  -0.3  10-yr Ave  -0.7
1939  Peak Ave   -0.2  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1967  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.8


MN9difS

Minnesota
MN Detroit Lakes
1896  First Adj  +0.2 
1905  First Ave  +0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.2
1947  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  +0.2
1972  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.9

MN Leech Lake
1897  First Adj   0.0 
1906  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
1949  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.2
1972  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.5
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +1.0

MN New Ulm
1895  First Adj  +0.1 
1904  First Ave  -0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.4
1920  Peak Ave   -0.6  10-yr Ave  -0.9
1939  Peak Ave   -0.5  10-yr Ave  +0.4
1951  Peak Ave   -0.4  10-yr Ave  -0.5
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +1.0


MO9difS

Missouri
MO Brunswick
1895  First Adj   0.0
1904  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1939  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.9
1986  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.5
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.4

MO Jefferson City
1895  First Adj  +0.1 
1904  First Ave  _0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.2
1939  Peak Ave   -0.2  10-yr Ave  +0.4
1985  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.5
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.4

MO Lamar
1895  First Adj  -0.6 
1904  First Ave  -0.6  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1939  Peak Ave   -0.6  10-yr Ave  +0.7
1985  Peak Ave   -0.6  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6


NE9difS

Nebraska
NE Beaver City
1896  First Adj   0.0
1905  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.2
1940  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.9
1952  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.3
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.2

NE Gothenburg
1895  First Adj  +0.2 
1904  First Ave  +0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1940  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1951  Peak Ave   +0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.2
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.3

NE Kimball
1895  First Adj  -0.4 
1904  First Ave  -0.4  10-yr Ave  -0.5
1940  Peak Ave   -0.3  10-yr Ave  +0.5
1951  Peak Ave   -0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7

ND9difS


North Dakota
ND Dickinson
1895  First Adj  -0.2 
1904  First Ave  -0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.7
1940  Peak Ave   -0.4  10-yr Ave  +0.5
1973  Peak Ave   -0.5  10-yr Ave  -0.7
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.8

ND Napoleon
1895  First Adj  -0.3 
1904  First Ave  -0.4  10-yr Ave  -0.8
1940  Peak Ave   -0.5  10-yr Ave  +0.5
1973  Peak Ave   -0.6  10-yr Ave  -0.8
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +1.0

ND Willow City
1895  First Adj   0.0 
1904  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.5
1934  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.5
1951  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7


OH9difS

Ohio
OH Hillsboro
1895  First Adj  +1.3 
1904  First Ave  +1.2  10-yr Ave  +0.4
1939  Peak Ave   +1.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1967  Peak Ave   +0.3  10-yr Ave  -0.7
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.2

OH Norwalk
1895  First Adj  -0.6 
1904  First Ave  -0.6  10-yr Ave  -0.6
1939  Peak Ave   -0.4  10-yr Ave  +0.5
1967  Peak Ave   -0.2  10-yr Ave  -0.3
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.8


SD9difS

South Dakota
SD Academy
1895  First Adj   0.0 
1904  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
1939  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +1.2
1951  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.8

SD Dickinson
1895  First Adj  +0.5 
1904  First Ave  +0.4  10-yr Ave  -0.2
1939  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  +1.0
1952  Peak Ave   -0.4  10-yr Ave  -0.9
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6

SD Rapid City
1895  First Adj  +0.3 
1904  First Ave  +0.3  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1940  Peak Ave   +0.4  10-yr Ave  +0.8
1951  Peak Ave   +0.4  10-yr Ave  -0.3
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6


WI9difS

Wisconsin
WI Green Bay
1886  First Adj  +0.7 
1895  First Ave  +0.7  10-yr Ave  -0.6
1939  Peak Ave   +0.2  10-yr Ave  +0.8
1959  Peak Ave   _0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.6
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.6

WI Lancaster
1895  First Adj   0.0 
1904  First Ave   0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.3
1939  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7
1979  Peak Ave    0.0  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj    0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.5

WI Spooner
1895  First Adj  -0.2 
1904  First Ave  -0.1  10-yr Ave  -1.1
1939  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  +0.6
1972  Peak Ave   -0.1  10-yr Ave  -0.4
2009  Last Adj   _0.0  10-yr Ave  +0.7


There is a mix of locations adjusted for warming (to reduce the warming trend in the raw data set) and for cooling (to increase the warming trend in the raw data set).

Here is an analysis of the temperature record.

created - Jan. 2011
last change - 02/03/2011
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