Prediction of LIGO Detections
Today LIGO detected a wave S191117j reported in GraceDB, but it had no defined merger.
My successful prediction on November 10 of detecting gravitational waves based on the full moon on November 12 covers this wave detection.
This detection is 5 days after that full moon.
LIGO had also detected a wave on November 5, which was 7 days before this full moon so this latest wave detection is within the prediction's range. Historically LIGO reports deviations up to 7 days from an event's peak.
I took the opportunity to give LIGO another prediction to cover the moon events in the near future. This is a reminder about the real source of their detections.
I expect it to be ignored but its reference within the LIGO site is useful.
My previous prediction was in a comment to a LIGO Scientific Collaboration post on November 9 about a wave detection on November 9. This is an additional comment to that post.
There is no other relevant post to apply the comment.
This is the entire prediction in the comment (between the === )
Prediction for future wave detections:
Based on LIGO's history there is a higher probability of wave detections +/- 2 days from a Moon or Sun event.
legend: FullMoon, NewMoon, PeriGee, PeriHelion, HighProbability, LowProbability.
there is a lower probability of wave detections within +/- 7 days from a Moon or Sun event. For example, the November 12 FM had 2 wave detections at -2 days (Nov. 10) from FM and other detections at -7 days from the FM, at -5 days, and at +5 days.
There will be higher probability of LIGO detections in these date ranges:
PG19-11-23 w/ HP 11-21 to 11-25
NM19-11-26 w/ HP 11-24 to 11-28
FM19-12-11 w/ HP 12-09 to 12-13
PG19-12-18 w/ HP 12-16 to 12-20
NM19-12-25 w/ HP 12-23 to 12-27
PH20-01-04 w/ HP 01-02 to 01-06
FM20-01-10 w/ HP 01-08 to 01-12
PG20-01-13 w/ HP 01-11 to 01-15
NM20-01-24 w/ HP 01-22 to 01-26
FM20-02-09 w/ HP 02-07 to 02-11
PG20-02-10 w/ HP 02-08 to 02-12
NM20-02-23 w/ HP 02-21 to 02-25
This list is an opportunity for LIGO to know, in advance, when there will be a wave to be detected. We can check whether LIGO detections remain consistent with its history in the higher probability range.
LIGO has not been consistent with detections further from the peak of the 4 predictable moon and sun events.
The lower probability ranges for these moon and sun events:
PG19-11-23 w/ LP 11-16 to 11-30
NM19-11-26 w/ LP 11-19 to 12-03
FM19-12-11 w/ LP 12-04 to 19-12-18
PG19-12-18 w/ LP 12-11 to 19-12-25
NM19-12-25 w/ LP 12-18 to 20-01-01
PH20-01-04 w/ LP 19-12-28 to 20-01-11
FM20-01-10 w/ LP 20-01-03 to 20-01-17
PG20-01-13 w/ LP 20-01-06 to 20-01-20
NM20-01-24 w/ LP 20-01-17 to 20-01-31
FM20-02-09 w/ LP 20-02-02 to 20-02-16
PG20-02-10 w/ LP 20-02-03 to 20-02-17
NM20-02-23 w/ LP 20-02-16 to 20-03-01
We can check whether LIGO detections remain consistent with its history in the lower probability range.
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