Prediction of Detections by LIGO - Confirmed
On November 10 I made a prediction LIGO would report several detections around the span of November 10 to 14 and also during two other 5 day spans later in November.
As of today LIGO has 2 detections after my prediction for the first span. I don't need to wait for more.
I made my prediction in a comment to a post in the LIGO Facebook page.
Before I entered the comment, I verified GraceDB site had no events after November 9.
The last event was S191109d on November 9 at 01:07:46 UTC
Here is the post in LIGO Scientific Collaboration facebook group (posted November 9 at 1 pm):
So November has been quite a month already for @LIGO @ego_virgo and #GravitationalWaves - and we're only 9 days in so far!!.... What's still to come in the next 3 weeks? Watch this space(-time)! (And don't forget you can follow our #GravitationalWaves alerts on #Chirp)
my comment to LIGO SC was dated on November 10 at 10 am: ===
There will be LIGO detections between November 10 and 14, between November 21 and 25, between November 24 and 28.
There will be several other detections before and after these narrow ranges. I was late with this prediction but detections were already reported on November 5 and 9.
Since LIGO began reporting detections it reports them in clumps with more in each clump in the O3 run (less in O1/O2).
For example in 2017 August 14, 17, 18 had detections.
This is what happened after I presented my prediction to LIGO.
GraceDB reported the following events:
S191110x on November 10 at 18:09:05 UTC - about 2 hours after my prediction at about 16:xx:xx UTC.
S191110af on November 10 at 23:10:59 UTC - about 7 hours after my prediction.
I expected LIGO to get multiple detections centered on the date November 12 simply because there was a full moon on that date!
I was too late posting my comment to LIGO but the earlier events on 5 and 9 are part of my expectation with LIGO for this full moon.
Due to randomness of LIGO I expect there might be more detections before November 17 and they are related to this prediction.
The 2 detections on November 10 were enough to confirm the prediction.
The earlier detections are relevant to the prediction though they were reported before November 10:
S191105e on November 5 at 14:35:45 UTC
S191109d on November 9 at 01:07:46 UTC
Therefore for the intent of the prediction for this particular full moon LIGO has had 4 detections so far.
On November 10 I had the confidence to predict LIGO detections in 3 different spans of 5 days each.
My prediction included two other 5-day spans later in November.
The first subsequent range is for the perigee on November 23 and the other range is for the new moon on November 26.
I expect those predictions to be confirmed as well.
The following list is my simple basis for a prediction by using the distribution of days for all previous LIGO detections to recognize the pattern.
Here are all the LIGO detections but shown as individual -x, 0,+x deviations from an earth tide event.
The earth tide events triggering LIGO detections: Full Moon, New Moon, PeriGee, PeriHelion, MJ = Moon-Jupiter conjunction.
NM-15-09-13 _ +1
NM-15-10-12 _ 0
FM-15-12-25 _ +1
PH-17-01-04 _ 0
FM -17-06-09 _ -1
NM-17-07-23 _ +6
PG-17-08-18 _ -4, -1,0 --- means detections on 08-14, 08-17, and 08-18 for this perigee
NM-17-08-21 _ +2
NM-19-04-05 _ 0, +3
PG-19-04-16 _ -4
MJ-19-04-23_ +2, +3
NM-19-05-04 _ -1
PG-19-05-13_ -3, -1, 0
FM-19-05-18 _ -1, 0, +1, +3, +3, +6
NM-19-06-03 _ -1
NM-19-07-02 _ -2, -1, +4, +5
FM-19-07-18 _ 0, +1, +2
NM-19-07-31 _ -4, -3
FM-19-08-15 _ -1
NM-19-08-30 _ -2, -2, -1, +2
FM-19-09-13 _ -3, -3, +2
NM-19-09-28 _ -5, -4, 0, +2, +2
FM-19-11-12 _ -7, -3, -2, -2 (more to follow?)
The above list includes all LIGO detections. There are no detections without an associated earth tide event.
It should be clear to everyone these are not random coincidences.
LIGO reports detections during an earth tide's ripple in the crust while the Earth continues its rotation. Because of this rotation the detections are rarely limited to the date of the peak of the earth tide.
My prediction's expectation:
I expected any combination of 0, +/- 1, +/- 2 (Nov 10-14) around this full moon as well as others outside the 5-day range. I thought taking a chance with my wording in the prediction would be worthwhile.
I could have specified a wider range but that would be more subject to derision. I used a narrow range first to establish some credibility if any detections were in this span and I got 2.
The observed results after my prediction:
There were 2 detections in the predicted span from Nov 10 to 14 (inclusive),
and also there were 2 detections slightly outside this span (on Nov 5 and 9).
There were 4 detections in this predicted clump (the word in my prediction) around a defined 5-day span.
The basis for my confidence is LIGO triggers its detections on a predictable terrestrial source. These sets of dates in the prediction were selected based on the assumption LIGO will continue to report detections consistent with its history. The distribution for each earth tide is not consistent.
It is impossible to make precise predictions for specific dates because the LIGO design uses software to find a template in the signal from an extremely sensitive system. The software's conclusion that this signal has the template is not predictable but over a number of days of Earth's rotation usually one or more detections are reported. The terrestrial source does not have to mimic a gravitational wave; it must only trigger the analysis. The earth tide wave is only a trigger to invoke the software. LIGO does no direct measurement but relies on software for analysis.
LIGO is not detecting gravitational waves when triggered by a terrestrial source.
It is impossible to predict an event from a anywhere in the universe within a specific span of only a few days. My goal was more than one detection in this clump and that was achieved. One is easily assigned to chance but multiple detections (2 on the same day and within the specified span) in a defined 5-day range are more awkward for only chance. There are two later spans in the prediction for November.
I expect an argument stating my prediction is well within statistical probabilities. My counter is I have an identified source for the predicted detection while LIGO has no independent confirmation to validate their detection claim. I must point out LIGO detections should have a random distribution but clearly it is not random when there are readily observed patterns (which I have documented) in the dates. If someone claims my prediction with a valid source is explained by probabilities then LIGO must explain why its unconfirmed detections are incredibly not random. These claims are not questioned though they must be.
This prediction demonstrates LIGO is not detecting what it claims. It should have been impossible to predict detections within any specified range of dates. I was successful with a 5-day range.
I consider my prediction for a clump of detections for the central span of Nov 10-14 confirmed.
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